A new policy brief from the European Forest Institute (EFI) based on RESONATE research warns that European forests are facing unprecedented levels of disturbance over the coming decades. Driven by wildfires, bark beetle outbreaks, and storms, these disturbances threaten biodiversity, carbon storage, and essential ecosystem services.
The policy brief is based on the recent study by RESONATE experts Climate change will increase forest disturbances in Europe throughout the 21st century | Science. Using a cutting-edge modelling framework combining deep learning, local forest model projections, and continental remote sensing data, the study simulates future forest disturbances at high spatial resolution (100 × 100 m) across Europe until 2100. Results indicate that, under severe climate change scenarios, the area affected by disturbances could more than double compared to recent decades. Wildfires are projected to rise sharply, particularly in Mediterranean regions, while bark beetle outbreaks intensify in temperate forests.
The policy brief outlines six key actions for decision-makers: integrate disturbance risk into forest planning, support trans-continental monitoring, promote structurally diverse and climate-adapted forests, fund targeted research, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate extreme scenarios.
By providing robust, continent-wide projections, this brief equips policymakers, forest managers, and stakeholders with evidence to develop proactive strategies that safeguard Europe’s forests, ensuring their resilience, biodiversity, and capacity to provide vital ecosystem services.
Read the full policy brief here: EFI Policy Brief 20.
Featured image: Drone for disturbance monitoring (@Raghav Sharma)
